Dead on Arrival, Why Joe Biden is a Jobber and He Won’t Be President
Today is March 17th. Democrat darling Beto O’Rourke has recently joined 12 other Democrats in a bid for the white house. A couple of those candidates are pretty good (Bernie Sanders, Tulsi Gabbard). However most of the other candidates range from bad to holy hell please don’t let them win (Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Julian Castro,etc). Joe Biden belongs with the latter group (should he announce (which he will)).
Most polls put Biden as the most popular Democrat in the country and he ranks highest among polls of Democrat candidates for 2020 when he is included. Which is almost always despite him not actually declaring yet. Polling aside I actually don’t believe Biden has a path to victory when it comes to the general election. Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 despite having polling on her side, mainstream media (though obviously Trump benefited from media coverage), and the entire democratic establishment backing her. Why did she lose? Was it the Russians? Was it the “emails”? Those things did play a factor but in my opinion her real issue was the enthusiasm gap between Clinton voters and Trump voters. Since first announcing almost 4 years ago Donald Trump has never had majority support, instead he has enjoyed cult-like support from his base (which makes up between 25 and 40 percent of the American population depending on who you ask). These people were amped up to vote for him. Trump beat out over a dozen candidates for his party’s population with only a few putting up anything close to a real fight. Clinton only faced serious competition from Bernie Sanders who broke fundraising records and had the backing of rabid supporters just like Donald Trump did. Donald Trump picked up the votes of Bush, Kasich, and Cruz supporters (many of whom ended up joining the cult of Trump) Clinton did not pick up enough of Bernie’s supporters at least in the states where she really needed them. In addition to this Clinton also failed to pick up the votes of Republicans, who found her so distasteful that they were willing to stomach Trump. In order for Biden to win the general he needs to win over at least a sizeable number of Bernie supporters or a fuck ton of Republican votes. Frankly I don’t see that happening.
The truth is there is little that separates Biden from Clinton. Both of them lost to Barack Obama in 2008 (plus Biden also lost in 1988), both of them are centrist democrats that have a long and questionable record, especially when it comes to foreign policy, and both are facing Bernie Sanders in a tough primary. Now Joe Biden will probably win the nomination (since he will have the backing of the DNC and will benefit from a crowded primary) that’s obvious. But what will happen in the general? Is he going to get the support of any Trump voters from 2016? No he won’t, he will be painted by Trump and his backers as being weak on defense, weak on immigration, and coming after their purse. To Trump supporters (and progressives) Biden represents the establishment (he’s basically just white Obama to them). He doesn’t have the integrity that a Bernie Sanders has, he doesn’t have the progressive credentials, but more than that he doesn’t have the enthusiasm that Trump and Sanders have been able to tap into. Come Election Day if it is Biden vs Trump, expect to see four more years of Trump.
