The Myth of the Democrat Majority
We’ve heard a lot this past month about the mandate the Democrats received as a result of the 2020 presidential election and the 2021 Georgia Senate runoffs. I’m not writing to say that Democrats didn’t really win, or that the silent majority is against them. I am writing today about numbers. The way politicians and publications are talking about congress one would imagine that the Democrats hold a super majority in congress the likes of which we have not seen for decades. This is simply not true.
Right now as it stands, in the United States Senate there are actually more Republicans than Democrats. In total there are 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and two independents, plus there is Vice-President Kamala Harris who has the ability to cast a tie breaking vote. So on paper shouldn’t the GOP have a majority? No because the two independent senators (Bernie Sanders and Angus King) caucus with the Democrats, meaning that they are a part of the Senate Democratic Caucus, which makes them for all intents and purposes Democrats. This brings the senate to 50% Democrat and 50% GOP with Harris as the tie breaker allowing Democrats to be the majority party.
But what does any of this mean? How different is the US senate in 2021 from the US Senate in 2020. The short answer is it’s not. Mitch McConnell is no longer Majority Leader, but he and Republicans are still able to prevent most legislation that they find undesirable. While the two new Georgia Senators (Jon Ossoff, and Raphael Warnock) are on the progressive side, this changes nothing about the viability of a Green New Deal, Medicare for All, or other big budget legislation.
This is due to two main factors, the first being senate rules, and the second being the division among Senate Democrats. For example the Senate Filibuster (which I plan to write about separately in a future article) effectively requires a 60 vote majority, which means that for most legislation, Democrats are going to need to pick up 10 Republicans (which is unlikely in the current political climate) in addition to having the votes of every Democrat senator (less easy than you might think).
This isn’t easy because Democrats are far from united (unlike the GOP senators which are for the most part in agreeance on legislation). You’ve got establishment figures like Chuck Schumer, Dick Durbin, and Cory Booker, who all takes positions based primarily on what is best for the party, you’ve got blue dogs like Amy Klobuchar, Joe Manchin, and Kyrsten Sinema (my current favorite senator) who have to vote moderately due to their constituents beliefs, and lastly the progressives (or fauxgressives) who are to the left of the party, these includes Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Raphael Warnock. Getting these people all to agree is going to (and has been) be difficult. Especially since senators like Machin (who voted with Trumps position over 70% of the time) votes with Republicans on issues like abortion, gun rights, and the environment.
So while some of the names are different, chances are all we are going to see passed are big defense budgets and corporate bailouts. “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss”.
